Fluminense 5-2 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Coritiba at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fluminense are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 0, Coritiba 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 2–3 with Coritiba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fluminense in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 46% versus Coritiba 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 50% | Coritiba 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 2.21 xG and Coritiba 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.206 / defence 1.019 | Coritiba attack 0.798 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.902. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Fluminense games / 22 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 71% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 11%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Coritiba 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 50% | Coritiba 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 71% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 46% | xG Fluminense 2.21 / Coritiba 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.206 / def 1.019 | Coritiba attack 0.798 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.902 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Coritiba xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Coritiba kick off?
Fluminense vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Fluminense 5 - 2 Coritiba.
Where is Fluminense vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Coritiba part of?
Fluminense vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 71% chance of winning, Coritiba a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fluminense and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Fluminense 0W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Coritiba in?
Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Coritiba (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.21) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
71%
1.40
18%
5.59
11%
9.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.95
0.73
Coritiba xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
9.18
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
11%
9.16
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
1%
84.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.73 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 11W 5D 6L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba's form line: 6W 4D 12L from 22 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fluminense are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (7W 0D 3L).
On the road, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.05 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 11W 5D 6L in their last 22 games (1.73 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Coritiba away?
Fluminense's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.10 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Coritiba in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Fluminense won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Fluminense
1
Draws
2
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 2, Coritiba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Coritiba 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Fluminense and 60% for Coritiba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coritiba in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fluminense's games and 60% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fluminense's matches and 60% of Coritiba's.
Do Fluminense and Coritiba tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fluminense run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Coritiba 5-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 2.21 xG and Coritiba 0.73 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coritiba outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against Coritiba attack 0.80 / defence 1.39, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 71% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 11%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 50%, Coritiba 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Coritiba's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.