Fluminense 0-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Ceara at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 8 July 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 3W 4D 2L from 9 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.44 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's home record at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Serie A appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama.
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have recorded 3W 4D 2L from 9 outings — 1.44 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's away record: 0W 3D 1L from 4 road trips in Serie A this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.44 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fluminense at 1.44 PPG versus Ceara's 1.44. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Fluminense in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Ceara in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 44% versus Ceara 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 22% | Ceara 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.93 xG and Ceara 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.912 / defence 1.291 | Ceara attack 0.635 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 0.936 / away 1.036. Data: 9 Fluminense games / 9 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 35% | Draw 34% | Ceara 31%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Ceara 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Ceara's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 50% | Ceara 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jul 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 35% | Draw 34% | Ceara 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Fluminense 0.93 / Ceara 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.912 / def 1.291 | Ceara attack 0.635 / def 1.084 | league avg home 0.936 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ceara xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Ceara kick off?
Fluminense vs Ceara kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 8 July 2021 at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Ceara?
Fluminense 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Fluminense vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama.
What competition is Fluminense vs Ceara part of?
Fluminense vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 35% chance of winning, Ceara a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Fluminense and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Ceara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Ceara in?
Fluminense (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Ceara (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.11 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fluminense's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
35%
2.87
34%
2.90
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.77
0.85
Ceara xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 14.4 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.85 for Ceara, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 3W 4D 2L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ceara's form line: 3W 4D 2L from 9 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.44 PPG, Ceara on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Ceara have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.22 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ceara in 67%.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Ceara in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Ceara have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Ceara away?
Fluminense's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.75 PPG; Ceara away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Ceara in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Ceara runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fluminense
1
Draws
2
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Ceara have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Ceara 2-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Ceara?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ceara see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Ceara 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Fluminense and 25% for Ceara.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ceara in 50%; Ceara in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 50% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Fluminense's recent games and 25% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Ceara tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ceara in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fluminense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama, Regular Season - 10, as Fluminense and Ceara drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.93 xG and Ceara 0.85 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fluminense fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ceara landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.91 / defence 1.29 against Ceara attack 0.64 / defence 1.08, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 35% | Draw 34% | Ceara 31%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 22%, Ceara 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ceara's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.44 PPG, Ceara 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.