Fluminense 2-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Monday 30 August 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bahia have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Fluminense, 0.70 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bahia — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 44% versus Bahia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 25% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.05 xG and Bahia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.800 / defence 1.186 | Bahia attack 0.850 / defence 1.524. League average goals — home 0.865 / away 1.086. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.524 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Fluminense games / 17 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 33% | Draw 31% | Bahia 36%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Bahia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 43% | Bahia 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Monday 30 Aug 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 33% | Draw 31% | Bahia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Fluminense 1.05 / Bahia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.800 / def 1.186 | Bahia attack 0.850 / def 1.524 | league avg home 0.865 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Bahia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Bahia xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Bahia kick off?
Fluminense vs Bahia kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 30 August 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Fluminense 2 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Fluminense vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Bahia part of?
Fluminense vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 33% chance of winning, Bahia a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fluminense and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in?
Fluminense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Bahia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.80x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.85x) against Fluminense's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
33%
2.99
31%
3.22
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.15
1.09
Bahia xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.09 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 4W 6D 6L from 16 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 9L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Fluminense against 0.94 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.06 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Bahia have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Bahia away?
Fluminense's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.29 PPG; Bahia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bahia in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Bahia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Bahia?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 43%, Bahia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Fluminense and 43% for Bahia.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fluminense have failed to score in 29% of games; Bahia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Fluminense's recent matches and 43% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Fluminense's recent games and 43% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Bahia 2-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.05 xG and Bahia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bahia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against Bahia attack 0.85 / defence 1.52, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 33% | Draw 31% | Bahia 36%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Fluminense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 25%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.12 PPG, Bahia 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.