Fluminense 2-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 June 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bahia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bahia haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Bahia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Fluminense's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 45% versus Bahia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 53% | Bahia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.69 xG and Bahia 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.120 / defence 0.836 | Bahia attack 0.629 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.053. Data: 49 Fluminense games / 11 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 64% | Draw 25% | Bahia 11%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | Bahia 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 60% | Bahia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jun 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 64% | Draw 25% | Bahia 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 36% | xG Fluminense 1.69 / Bahia 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.120 / def 0.836 | Bahia attack 0.629 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Bahia xG
36%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Bahia kick off?
Fluminense vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 24 June 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Fluminense vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Bahia part of?
Fluminense vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 64% chance of winning, Bahia a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Fluminense and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
Record (2 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 0 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.12x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.63x) against Fluminense's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (15.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
64%
1.56
25%
3.96
11%
9.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.24
0.55
Bahia xG
1.56
64%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
9.35
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
58%
1.74
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
37%
2.71
2%
50.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.1 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.55 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 21W 7D 10L from 38 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 17L across 38 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. Bahia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fluminense by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 12W 3D 4L from 19 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 3W 5D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.11 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 21W 7D 10L in their last 38 games (1.84 PPG), while Bahia have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Bahia away?
Fluminense's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.05 PPG; Bahia away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bahia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Bahia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Bahia?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 53%, Bahia 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Fluminense) and 42% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bahia in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fluminense's recent matches and 37% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Fluminense's recent games and 42% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Bahia tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bahia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Bahia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Bahia 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.69 xG and Bahia 0.55 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against Bahia attack 0.63 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 64% | Draw 25% | Bahia 11%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 53%, Bahia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.