Flamengo 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Flamengo welcome RB Bragantino to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A (matchday 24). Kick-off is Monday 26 August 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Flamengo have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Flamengo have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Bragantino — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Flamengo's last 10 home games and RB Bragantino's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Flamengo have won 2, RB Bragantino 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended Flamengo 1–1 RB Bragantino — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 58% versus RB Bragantino 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | RB Bragantino 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.47 xG and RB Bragantino 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.084 / defence 0.974 | RB Bragantino attack 1.057 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.043. Data: built from Flamengo's last 60 games and RB Bragantino's last 59.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 46% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 28%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.16 | Draw 3.82 | RB Bragantino 3.63. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Flamengo 70% (last 10 home games) | RB Bragantino 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Monday 26 August 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 46% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Flamengo 1.47 / RB Bragantino 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.084 / def 0.974 | RB Bragantino attack 1.057 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Monday 26 August 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Flamengo 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino part of?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 46% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Flamengo and RB Bragantino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Flamengo vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.08) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 60 games and RB Bragantino's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.82
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.55
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Flamengo and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.07 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 30W 14D 15L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 24W 17D 18L from 59 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.76 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 7D 6L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 7W 10D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.27 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
Flamengo (Home) vs RB Bragantino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 30W 14D 15L in their last 59 games (1.76 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or RB Bragantino away?
Flamengo's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.90 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Flamengo or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won RB Bragantino 4-0 Flamengo.
Flamengo's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Flamengo
1
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Flamengo and RB Bragantino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Flamengo 2-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 52%, RB Bragantino 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Flamengo) and 38% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and RB Bragantino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Flamengo's recent matches and 52% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Flamengo and RB Bragantino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Flamengo's recent games and 38% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and RB Bragantino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Flamengo's recent matches and 79% of RB Bragantino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.47 xG and RB Bragantino 1.07 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against RB Bragantino attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 46% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 28%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, RB Bragantino 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.76 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.