Flamengo 0-4 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 8 August 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 5W 0D 2L from 7 home games — 2.14 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Internacional (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Flamengo's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Internacional's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Internacional half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 50% versus Internacional 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 58% | Internacional 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.74 xG and Internacional 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.452 / defence 1.126 | Internacional attack 0.798 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 0.875 / away 1.057. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.452 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Internacional bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Flamengo games / 14 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 56% | Draw 24% | Internacional 20%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Internacional 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 57% | Internacional 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 56% | Draw 24% | Internacional 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Flamengo 1.74 / Internacional 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.452 / def 1.126 | Internacional attack 0.798 / def 1.370 | league avg home 0.875 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Internacional xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Internacional kick off?
Flamengo vs Internacional kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Internacional?
Flamengo 0 - 4 Internacional.
Where is Flamengo vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Internacional part of?
Flamengo vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 56% chance of winning, Internacional a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Flamengo and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Internacional?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Internacional in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Internacional (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.80x) against Flamengo's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 12/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.24
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.69
0.95
Internacional xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
4%
27.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.95 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Internacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Flamengo have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 8W 0D 4L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional's form line: 3W 5D 4L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Internacional.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 0.75 scored and 0.92 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Internacional's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Internacional in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 8W 0D 4L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Internacional have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Internacional away?
Flamengo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.00 PPG; Internacional away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Internacional in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Flamengo
6
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Internacional?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 2, Internacional have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2026, when Internacional 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Flamengo, 67% for Internacional — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Flamengo) and 33% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Internacional in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Internacional?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Flamengo's games and 67% of Internacional's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Flamengo vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Flamengo's recent games and 33% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Internacional tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Internacional in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Internacional run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Flamengo 0-4 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.74 xG and Internacional 0.95 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Internacional outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.45 / defence 1.13 against Internacional attack 0.80 / defence 1.37, drawn from 12/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 56% | Draw 24% | Internacional 20%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Internacional win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 58%, Internacional 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Internacional's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Internacional winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.