Flamengo 2-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Flamengo and Coritiba meet at Estádio Nacional de Brasília in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 July 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Flamengo have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estádio Nacional de Brasília — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nacional de Brasília. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Coritiba (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Flamengo. A 0.60 PPG lead over Coritiba (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 44% versus Coritiba 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 44% | Coritiba 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.07 xG and Coritiba 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.080 / defence 0.830 | Coritiba attack 0.885 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 0.942. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.487 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Flamengo games / 16 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 69% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 11%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Coritiba 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 30% | Coritiba 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Nacional de Brasília • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 69% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG Flamengo 2.07 / Coritiba 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.080 / def 0.830 | Coritiba attack 0.885 / def 1.487 | league avg home 1.289 / away 0.942 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Coritiba xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Coritiba kick off?
Flamengo vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Estádio Nacional de Brasília.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Flamengo 2 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Flamengo vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional de Brasília.
What competition is Flamengo vs Coritiba part of?
Flamengo vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 69% chance of winning, Coritiba a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Flamengo and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Coritiba in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Coritiba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.08) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.89x) against Flamengo's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
69%
1.45
20%
4.91
11%
9.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.76
0.69
Coritiba xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
9.34
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
35%
2.90
1%
73.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.69 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 6W 3D 7L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba's form line: 5W 4D 7L from 16 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Flamengo against 1.19 for Coritiba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Flamengo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.25 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Coritiba away?
Flamengo's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.86 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Flamengo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Flamengo
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Flamengo 3-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Coritiba?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 29%, Coritiba 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Flamengo) and 71% (Coritiba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Flamengo have failed to score in 29% of games; Coritiba in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Flamengo's recent matches and 71% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Flamengo's matches and 71% of Coritiba's.
Do Flamengo and Coritiba tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Coritiba 2-0 at Estádio Nacional de Brasília, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.07 xG and Coritiba 0.69 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.08 / defence 0.83 against Coritiba attack 0.89 / defence 1.49, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 69% | Draw 20% | Coritiba 11%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 44%, Coritiba 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Coritiba's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.31 PPG, Coritiba 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.