Flamengo 2-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Chapecoense-sc at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 July 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 4W 0D 4L from 8 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Flamengo have posted 3W 0D 2L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Chapecoense-sc have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0W 3D 2L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Flamengo have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Flamengo in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 38% versus Chapecoense-sc 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Flamengo 38% | Chapecoense-sc 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.37 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.073 / defence 1.094 | Chapecoense-sc attack 1.030 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 1.046. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Flamengo games / 10 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 41% | Draw 27% | Chapecoense-sc 32%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Chapecoense-sc 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 40% | Chapecoense-sc 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jul 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 41% | Draw 27% | Chapecoense-sc 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Flamengo 1.37 / Chapecoense-sc 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.073 / def 1.094 | Chapecoense-sc attack 1.030 / def 1.405 | league avg home 0.911 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Chapecoense-sc xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 11 July 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Flamengo 2 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 41% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc in?
Flamengo (all comps): 4W-0D-4L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.65
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.55
1.18
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.18 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 0D 4L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chapecoense-sc sit at 0.50 PPG from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Flamengo's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Chapecoense-sc have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.88 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 62%.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 4W 0D 4L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Flamengo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.50 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2026, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Flamengo
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 2, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Flamengo at 50%, Chapecoense-sc at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 50% (Chapecoense-sc).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Flamengo's games and 100% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 50% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Chapecoense-sc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Chapecoense-sc 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.37 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.18 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.07 / defence 1.09 against Chapecoense-sc attack 1.03 / defence 1.41, drawn from 8/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 41% | Draw 27% | Chapecoense-sc 32%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 38%, Chapecoense-sc 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.