Flamengo 0-3 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Atletico-MG at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico-MG stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Flamengo at 2.00 PPG versus Atletico-MG's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 3, Atletico-MG 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Flamengo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 52% versus Atletico-MG 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Atletico-MG 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 0.87 xG and Atletico-MG 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.945 / defence 0.789 | Atletico-MG attack 1.035 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.130. Atletico-MG's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Flamengo games / 73 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 32% | Draw 33% | Atletico-MG 35%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Atletico-MG 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Flamengo's lower xG of 0.87 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico-MG are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 40% | Atletico-MG 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Nov 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 32% | Draw 33% | Atletico-MG 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Flamengo 0.87 / Atletico-MG 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.945 / def 0.789 | Atletico-MG attack 1.035 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Atletico-MG xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Flamengo 0 - 3 Atletico-MG.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG part of?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 32% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Flamengo and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Record (4 meetings): Flamengo 3W | Draws 0 | Atletico-MG 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Atletico-MG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.94x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
32%
3.13
33%
3.02
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Flamengo xG
Total xG
1.79
0.92
Atletico-MG xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.4 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.92 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 36W 17D 20L from 73 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 32W 22D 19L across 73 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.71 PPG, Atletico-MG on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 20W 8D 8L from 36 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 14W 14D 8L across 36 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.25 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Atletico-MG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 36W 17D 20L in their last 73 games (1.71 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 32W 22D 19L in their last 73 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Atletico-MG away?
Flamengo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.89 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Flamengo
2
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 6, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Atletico-MG 0-4 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 42%, Atletico-MG 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 28% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 42%; Atletico-MG in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Flamengo's recent matches and 42% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 28% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atletico-MG run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Flamengo 0-3 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 0.87 xG and Atletico-MG 0.92 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Atletico-MG outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.94 / defence 0.79 against Atletico-MG attack 1.03 / defence 0.71, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 32% | Draw 33% | Atletico-MG 35%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Atletico-MG 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.71 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico-MG win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.