Flamengo 3-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 25 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
America Mineiro have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
America Mineiro's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Flamengo, 1.80 for America Mineiro — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Flamengo 1W, America Mineiro 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
America Mineiro half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus America Mineiro 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Flamengo 55% | America Mineiro 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.17 xG and America Mineiro 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.939 / defence 0.842 | America Mineiro attack 0.739 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 0.990. Data: 51 Flamengo games / 51 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 33% | America Mineiro 19%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | America Mineiro 5.26. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — America Mineiro's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 20% | America Mineiro 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 33% | America Mineiro 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 32% | xG Flamengo 1.17 / America Mineiro 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.939 / def 0.842 | America Mineiro attack 0.739 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.306 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.62
America Mineiro xG
32%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs America Mineiro kick off?
Flamengo vs America Mineiro kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 25 June 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Flamengo 3 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Flamengo vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs America Mineiro part of?
Flamengo vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 49% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Flamengo and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and America Mineiro?
Record (2 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 1 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are Flamengo and America Mineiro in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Flamengo's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (0.74x) against Flamengo's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.0%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
49%
2.05
33%
3.07
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Flamengo xG
Total xG
1.79
0.62
America Mineiro xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.62 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 21W 8D 9L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
America Mineiro's form line: 13W 14D 11L from 38 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against America Mineiro.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 2.11 PPG from 19 outings (13W 1D 5L).
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 4W 8D 7L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.08 scored and 0.97 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against America Mineiro's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or America Mineiro away?
Flamengo's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.11 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Flamengo or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
0
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, America Mineiro have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when America Mineiro 0-3 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and America Mineiro?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 32%, America Mineiro 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 26% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Flamengo have failed to score in 26% of games; America Mineiro in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Flamengo's recent matches and 53% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 26% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat America Mineiro 3-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.17 xG and America Mineiro 0.62 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against America Mineiro attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 49% | Draw 33% | America Mineiro 19%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, America Mineiro 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
America Mineiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.