Cuiaba 1-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Palmeiras meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 4W 3D 3L at Arena Pantanal — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Palmeiras (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Palmeiras are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cuiaba 1W, Palmeiras 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 44% versus Palmeiras 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 30% | Palmeiras 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.75 xG and Palmeiras 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.783 / defence 0.928 | Palmeiras attack 1.336 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.005. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 Cuiaba games / 73 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 22% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 48%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Palmeiras 2.08. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 50% | Palmeiras 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 22% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Cuiaba 0.75 / Palmeiras 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.783 / def 0.928 | Palmeiras attack 1.336 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Palmeiras xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Palmeiras kick off?
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Cuiaba 1 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Cuiaba vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Palmeiras part of?
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 22% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cuiaba and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Cuiaba and Palmeiras in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.78) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.34x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
22%
4.46
30%
3.38
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.00
1.25
Palmeiras xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
23%
4.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 16.9 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.25 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 19W 27D 27L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 42W 17D 14L from 73 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cuiaba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.36 PPG from 36 outings (12W 13D 11L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 19W 10D 7L from 36 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.66 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 19W 27D 27L in their last 73 games (1.15 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 42W 17D 14L in their last 73 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.36 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
1
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Palmeiras?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Palmeiras have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 44%, Palmeiras 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Cuiaba) and 47% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Palmeiras in 44%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 47% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Cuiaba's recent games and 47% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba and Palmeiras finished level at 1-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.75 xG and Palmeiras 1.25 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.78 / defence 0.93 against Palmeiras attack 1.34 / defence 0.74, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 22% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 48%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 30%, Palmeiras 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.