Cuiaba 0-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cuiaba at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 20 as Cuiaba welcome Fortaleza EC to Arena Pantanal. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 July 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cuiaba 1.20 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cuiaba, 0 for Fortaleza EC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Cuiaba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus Fortaleza EC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 30% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.27 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.785 / defence 0.822 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.144 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 0.931. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Cuiaba games / 57 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 45% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 26%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Fortaleza EC 3.85. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 40% | Fortaleza EC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 45% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Cuiaba 1.27 / Fortaleza EC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.785 / def 0.822 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.144 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.324 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fortaleza EC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Cuiaba 0 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 45% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC?
Record (3 meetings): Cuiaba 2W | Draws 1 | Fortaleza EC 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Fortaleza EC's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.47
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.14
0.88
Fortaleza EC xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.88 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 15W 22D 20L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 24L across 57 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.18 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 9W 11D 8L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 8W 3D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.04 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 15W 22D 20L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 20W 13D 24L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.36 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2024, when Cuiaba won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Cuiaba
1
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 5, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 43%, Fortaleza EC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Cuiaba) and 57% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games; Fortaleza EC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 57% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cuiaba's recent games and 57% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Cuiaba 0-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.27 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.79 / defence 0.82 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.14 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 45% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 26%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 30%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.18 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.