Cuiaba 1-1 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Cuiaba welcome Atletico Goianiense to Arena Pantanal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Goianiense — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atletico Goianiense's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cuiaba) versus 1.60 (Atletico Goianiense). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cuiaba's 30% rate and Atletico Goianiense's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cuiaba, 0 for Atletico Goianiense and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Atletico Goianiense in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus Atletico Goianiense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 34% | Atletico Goianiense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.35 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.791 / defence 1.016 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.866 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 0.925. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Goianiense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Cuiaba games / 41 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 50% | Draw 28% | Atletico Goianiense 22%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Atletico Goianiense 4.55. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Atletico Goianiense 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 50% | Draw 28% | Atletico Goianiense 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Cuiaba 1.35 / Atletico Goianiense 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.791 / def 1.016 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.866 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.419 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Atletico Goianiense xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Cuiaba 1 - 1 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 50% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 1 | Atletico Goianiense 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Atletico Goianiense's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Goianiense's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.58
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.17
0.81
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
6%
17.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.81 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 10W 17D 11L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Atletico Goianiense, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 11L across 38 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.24 PPG, Atletico Goianiense on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Goianiense's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.87 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Atletico Goianiense in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.42 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Atletico Goianiense specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
5
Draws
0
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, Atletico Goianiense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cuiaba) and 42% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 42%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games; Atletico Goianiense in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 37% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cuiaba's recent games and 42% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 4, as Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.35 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.81 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 50% | Draw 28% | Atletico Goianiense 22%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 34%, Atletico Goianiense 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.24 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.