Criciuma 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Criciuma vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Criciuma host Palmeiras at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 0.73 xG and Palmeiras 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.827 / defence 1.143 | Palmeiras attack 0.964 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.103. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 3 Criciuma games / 44 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 22% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 47%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Palmeiras 2.13. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 22% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Criciuma 0.73 / Palmeiras 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.827 / def 1.143 | Palmeiras attack 0.964 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Palmeiras xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Palmeiras kick off?
Criciuma vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Palmeiras?
Criciuma 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Criciuma vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Palmeiras part of?
Criciuma vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 22% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Criciuma and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Criciuma and Palmeiras in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Palmeiras away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Criciuma's attack rating (0.83) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Criciuma's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
22%
4.63
32%
3.17
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Criciuma xG
Total xG
1.95
1.22
Palmeiras xG
4.63
22%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
6%
15.60
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 17.3 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.22 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Criciuma and Palmeiras runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
0
Draws
2
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Palmeiras?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 0, Palmeiras have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when Palmeiras 5-0 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Criciuma 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Criciuma 1-2 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 0.73 xG and Palmeiras 1.22 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Palmeiras attack 0.96 / defence 0.76, drawn from 3/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 22% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 47%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.