Criciuma 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Criciuma vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Criciuma welcome Internacional to Estádio Heriberto Hülse. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Serie A games this season, Internacional have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Internacional have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.05 xG and Internacional 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 1.032 / defence 1.510 | Internacional attack 0.918 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.074. Internacional's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Criciuma games / 48 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 25% | Draw 30% | Internacional 45%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Internacional 2.22. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 25% | Draw 30% | Internacional 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Criciuma 1.05 / Internacional 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 1.032 / def 1.510 | Internacional attack 0.918 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Internacional (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Internacional xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Internacional kick off?
Criciuma vs Internacional kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Internacional?
Criciuma 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Criciuma vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Internacional part of?
Criciuma vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 25% chance of winning, Internacional a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Criciuma and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Internacional?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Criciuma and Internacional in?
Internacional (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Internacional away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Criciuma's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Criciuma's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
25%
4.03
30%
3.35
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.54
1.49
Internacional xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
6%
17.84
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.49 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Pre-Season
Internacional
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
1
Draws
1
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Internacional?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 0, Internacional have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2024, when Internacional 2-0 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Criciuma and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Criciuma and Internacional finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.05 xG and Internacional 1.49 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 1.03 / defence 1.51 against Internacional attack 0.92 / defence 0.76, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 25% | Draw 30% | Internacional 45%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.