Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Coritiba, 1 for Vasco DA Gama and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2023, ended 1–5 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.12 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.602 / defence 1.027 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.179 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.026. Coritiba's attack strength of 0.602 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vasco DA Gama bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Coritiba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Coritiba games / 46 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 33% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 39%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Vasco DA Gama 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 33% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Coritiba 1.12 / Vasco DA Gama 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.602 / def 1.027 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.179 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Vasco DA Gama xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Coritiba 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 33% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (2 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Vasco DA Gama away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.60) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (1.18x) against Coritiba's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
33%
3.02
28%
3.59
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.36
1.24
Vasco DA Gama xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.24 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vasco DA Gama won 5-1 on 21 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Coritiba
2
Draws
1
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama?
From 3 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 0, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2026, when Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 9, as Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.12 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.24 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.60 / defence 1.03 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.18 / defence 1.22, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 33% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 39%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.