Coritiba 1-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Coritiba at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coritiba host Sao Paulo at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 June 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sao Paulo have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.47 xG and Sao Paulo 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 1.084 / defence 0.937 | Sao Paulo attack 0.972 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 0.994. Data: 9 Coritiba games / 47 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 50% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 23%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sao Paulo 4.35. Coritiba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coritiba as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jun 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 50% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Coritiba 1.47 / Sao Paulo 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 1.084 / def 0.937 | Sao Paulo attack 0.972 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.284 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sao Paulo xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 10 June 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Coritiba 1 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Coritiba vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Sao Paulo part of?
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 50% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Coritiba and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Sao Paulo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Sao Paulo in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sao Paulo away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.75
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.38
0.91
Sao Paulo xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
5%
18.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.91 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sao Paulo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Coritiba's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Coritiba
2
Draws
3
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Sao Paulo?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 0, Sao Paulo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when Coritiba 0-1 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Coritiba and Sao Paulo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba and Sao Paulo finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.47 xG and Sao Paulo 0.91 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Sao Paulo attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 50% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 23%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.