Coritiba 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 37%, yet in-form Internacional provide a compelling counter-argument — this Coritiba vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Internacional meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 June 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Coritiba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Coritiba's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Internacional (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Internacional arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Coritiba 0W, Internacional 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Coritiba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Internacional goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 47% versus Internacional 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 47% | Internacional 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.14 xG and Internacional 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.759 / defence 1.093 | Internacional attack 0.826 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.084. Coritiba's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Coritiba games / 48 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 37% | Draw 35% | Internacional 28%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Internacional 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coritiba as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Internacional (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coritiba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 40% | Internacional 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jun 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 37% | Draw 35% | Internacional 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Coritiba 1.14 / Internacional 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.759 / def 1.093 | Internacional attack 0.826 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Internacional xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Internacional kick off?
Coritiba vs Internacional kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 23 June 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Internacional?
Coritiba 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Coritiba vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Internacional part of?
Coritiba vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 37% chance of winning, Internacional a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Coritiba and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Internacional?
Record (2 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 1 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Internacional in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Internacional (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.76x the league average against Internacional's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.83x) against Coritiba's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
37%
2.74
35%
2.84
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.12
0.98
Internacional xG
2.74
37%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.98 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Coritiba have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 12W 6D 20L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 20W 13D 5L from 38 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Internacional are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Internacional have gone 7W 8D 4L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.53 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Internacional in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 12W 6D 20L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Internacional have gone 20W 13D 5L in their last 38 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Internacional away?
Coritiba's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.95 PPG; Internacional away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Internacional in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
2
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Internacional?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Internacional have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Coritiba 2-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 42%, Internacional 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Coritiba and 26% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Internacional in 37%; Internacional in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Coritiba's recent matches and 47% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Coritiba's recent games and 26% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Internacional tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Internacional in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Internacional defy the odds to beat Coritiba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Coritiba 0-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.14 xG and Internacional 0.98 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Internacional attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 37% | Draw 35% | Internacional 28%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Internacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 47%, Internacional 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.