Coritiba 3-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Fluminense — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.23 xG and Fluminense 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 1.011 / defence 1.013 | Fluminense attack 0.945 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 0.922. Data: 3 Coritiba games / 41 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 44% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 27%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Fluminense 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coritiba are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 44% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Coritiba 1.23 / Fluminense 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 1.011 / def 1.013 | Fluminense attack 0.945 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.405 / away 0.922 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fluminense xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Fluminense kick off?
Coritiba vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Coritiba 3 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Coritiba vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Fluminense part of?
Coritiba vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 44% chance of winning, Fluminense a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Coritiba and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Fluminense in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Fluminense away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coritiba's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.42
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.11
0.88
Fluminense xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.88 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Fluminense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Fluminense runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Fluminense won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Coritiba
1
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fluminense?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 2, Fluminense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Coritiba edge out Fluminense 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Fluminense 3-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.23 xG and Fluminense 0.88 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coritiba beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fluminense outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 44% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 27%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.