Coritiba 2-4 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Coritiba welcome Bahia to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 September 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bahia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Coritiba) versus 1.00 (Bahia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Coritiba, 1 for Bahia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Coritiba in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Bahia in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 68% versus Bahia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 64% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.28 xG and Bahia 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.891 / defence 1.172 | Bahia attack 0.581 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 0.930. Data: 59 Coritiba games / 22 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 51% | Draw 33% | Bahia 17%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 1.96 | Draw 3.03 | Bahia 5.88. Coritiba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coritiba are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 50% | Bahia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 51% | Draw 33% | Bahia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Coritiba 1.28 / Bahia 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.891 / def 1.172 | Bahia attack 0.581 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.321 / away 0.930 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Bahia xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Bahia kick off?
Coritiba vs Bahia kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Bahia?
Coritiba 2 - 4 Bahia.
Where is Coritiba vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Bahia part of?
Coritiba vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 51% chance of winning, Bahia a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Coritiba and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Bahia?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Bahia in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Bahia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.89) and Bahia's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
51%
1.98
33%
3.05
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Coritiba xG
Total xG
1.92
0.63
Bahia xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
5%
21.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.63 for Bahia, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coritiba's recent record stands at 3W 5D 14L from 22 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 10L across 22 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coritiba on 0.64 PPG, Bahia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coritiba have managed 2W 3D 5L from 10 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 1W 3D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Coritiba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.05 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coritiba have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Bahia in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 games (0.64 PPG), while Bahia have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Bahia away?
Coritiba's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 0.90 PPG; Bahia away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
2
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Bahia?
From 3 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Bahia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2026, when Coritiba 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Coritiba 50% BTTS, Bahia 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Coritiba and 30% for Bahia.
On the defensive side: Coritiba have failed to score in 40% of games; Bahia in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Coritiba's recent matches and 20% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Coritiba's recent games and 30% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Bahia tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bahia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Coritiba 2-4 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.28 xG and Bahia 0.63 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Bahia outscored their 0.63 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Bahia attack 0.58 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 51% | Draw 33% | Bahia 17%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Bahia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 64%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 0.64 PPG, Bahia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.