Coritiba 0-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Atletico Paranaense travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 June 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Paranaense stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atletico Paranaense away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.23 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.978 / defence 1.069 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.945 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 0.993. Data: 12 Coritiba games / 50 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 40% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 29%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Paranaense 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coritiba are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 40% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Coritiba 1.23 / Atletico Paranaense 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.978 / def 1.069 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.945 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.274 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Atletico Paranaense xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Coritiba 0 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 40% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Atletico Paranaense away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.98x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.15
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.23
1.00
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.00 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
4
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Atletico Paranaense have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Atletico Paranaense defy the odds to beat Coritiba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Coritiba 0-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.23 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.00 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 40% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 29%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Atletico Paranaense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.