Corinthians 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Corinthians and Palmeiras meet at Neo Química Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Corinthians's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Corinthians have posted 7W 3D 0L at Neo Química Arena — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Química Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Corinthians are significantly better at Neo Química Arena than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Palmeiras have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Corinthians lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 48% versus Palmeiras 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 36% | Palmeiras 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 0.86 xG and Palmeiras 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.979 / defence 0.689 | Palmeiras attack 1.226 / defence 0.662. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.945. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.662 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 0.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Corinthians's defence rating of 0.689 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Corinthians games / 59 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 35% | Draw 35% | Palmeiras 31%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | Palmeiras 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Palmeiras's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 30% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 35% | Draw 35% | Palmeiras 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Corinthians 0.86 / Palmeiras 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.979 / def 0.689 | Palmeiras attack 1.226 / def 0.662 | league avg home 1.331 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Palmeiras xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Palmeiras kick off?
Corinthians vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Corinthians 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Corinthians vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Palmeiras part of?
Corinthians vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 35% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Corinthians and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Palmeiras?
Record (2 meetings): Corinthians 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Corinthians and Palmeiras in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Corinthians's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.23x) against Corinthians's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
35%
2.89
35%
2.90
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Corinthians xG
Total xG
1.66
0.80
Palmeiras xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 15.2 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.80 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Corinthians have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 26W 18D 15L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 33W 12D 14L from 59 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Corinthians against 1.88 for Palmeiras. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 2.03 PPG from 29 outings (17W 8D 4L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 15W 7D 7L from 29 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Corinthians are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.59 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 26W 18D 15L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 33W 12D 14L in their last 59 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Palmeiras away?
Corinthians's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 2.03 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Corinthians
3
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Corinthians 0-0 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 52%, Palmeiras 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Corinthians) and 48% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Palmeiras in 48%; Palmeiras in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Corinthians's recent matches and 41% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Corinthians's recent games and 48% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Corinthians 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Corinthians 0-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 0.86 xG and Palmeiras 0.80 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Corinthians fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.98 / defence 0.69 against Palmeiras attack 1.23 / defence 0.66, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 35% | Draw 35% | Palmeiras 31%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 36%, Palmeiras 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.63 PPG, Palmeiras 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.