Corinthians 1-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Neo Química Arena to face Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 July 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Corinthians's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians at Neo Química Arena this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Química Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Corinthians are significantly better at Neo Química Arena than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Corinthians against 1.60 for Flamengo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Corinthians lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Flamengo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 45% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 34% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.23 xG and Flamengo 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.908 / defence 0.697 | Flamengo attack 1.051 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 0.992. Corinthians's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Corinthians games / 53 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 47% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 21%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Flamengo 4.76. Corinthians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Corinthians at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 30% | Flamengo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 47% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Corinthians 1.23 / Flamengo 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.908 / def 0.697 | Flamengo attack 1.051 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.315 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Flamengo xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Flamengo kick off?
Corinthians vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Corinthians 1 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Corinthians vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Flamengo part of?
Corinthians vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 47% chance of winning, Flamengo a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Corinthians and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Corinthians 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Corinthians and Flamengo in?
Corinthians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Corinthians's attack rating (0.91) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.05x) against Corinthians's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.19
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Corinthians xG
Total xG
1.95
0.73
Flamengo xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
6%
16.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.73 for Flamengo, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Corinthians have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 22W 17D 14L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 27W 11D 15L from 53 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Corinthians against 1.74 for Flamengo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 1.92 PPG from 26 outings (14W 8D 4L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 10W 9D 7L from 26 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Corinthians are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.64 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 22W 17D 14L in their last 53 games (1.57 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 27W 11D 15L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Flamengo away?
Corinthians's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.92 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Flamengo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 4-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Corinthians
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 3, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Corinthians 1-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 54%, Flamengo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Corinthians) and 62% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Corinthians's games and 65% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Corinthians vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Corinthians's recent games and 62% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Flamengo tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Flamengo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Flamengo 1-0 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.23 xG and Flamengo 0.73 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.91 / defence 0.70 against Flamengo attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 47% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 21%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 34%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Flamengo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.57 PPG, Flamengo 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.