Corinthians 1-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 1 as Corinthians welcome Bahia to Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Corinthians stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Corinthians's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Corinthians 1.40 PPG, Bahia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Corinthians register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bahia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Corinthians, 2 for Bahia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Corinthians in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Bahia in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 51% versus Bahia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 49% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.66 xG and Bahia 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.999 / defence 0.974 | Bahia attack 0.921 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.031. Data: 38 Corinthians games / 38 Bahia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Corinthians 55% | Draw 24% | Bahia 21%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Bahia 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Corinthians 60% | Bahia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 55% | Draw 24% | Bahia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Corinthians 1.66 / Bahia 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.999 / def 0.974 | Bahia attack 0.921 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Bahia xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Bahia kick off?
Corinthians vs Bahia kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Bahia?
Corinthians 1 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Corinthians vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Corinthians vs Bahia part of?
Corinthians vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 55% chance of winning, Bahia a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Corinthians and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Bahia?
Record (8 meetings): Corinthians 3W | Draws 3 | Bahia 2W.
What form are Corinthians and Bahia in?
Corinthians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.00x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.10
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.58
0.92
Bahia xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
4%
25.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.92 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Corinthians come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 22D 27L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Bahia sit at 1.49 PPG from 76 outings (32W 17D 27L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.36 PPG, Bahia on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Corinthians's home form reads 18W 14D 6L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Corinthians are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bahia have taken 0.84 points per game from 38 outings (7W 11D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Bahia in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 27W 22D 27L in their last 76 games (1.36 PPG), while Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Bahia away?
Corinthians's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.79 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bahia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Bahia won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Corinthians's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Corinthians
4
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 3, Bahia have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Corinthians.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 58%, Bahia 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Corinthians) and 60% (Bahia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bahia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Corinthians's games and 66% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Corinthians vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Corinthians's matches and 60% of Bahia's.
Do Corinthians and Bahia tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bahia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Corinthians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Corinthians 1-2 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.66 xG and Bahia 0.92 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bahia outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Bahia attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 55% | Draw 24% | Bahia 21%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Bahia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 49%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.36 PPG, Bahia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.