Chapecoense-sc 2-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Flamengo travel to Arena Condá to take on Chapecoense-sc. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 November 2021, 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 games at Arena Condá this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Flamengo away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Flamengo are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chapecoense-sc, 1 for Flamengo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Flamengo in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 61% versus Flamengo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 43% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.92 xG and Flamengo 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.824 / defence 1.577 | Flamengo attack 1.437 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 0.919 / away 0.945. Flamengo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.437 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Chapecoense-sc games / 28 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 15% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 65%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Flamengo 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 70% | Flamengo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Monday 8 Nov 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 15% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.92 / Flamengo 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.824 / def 1.577 | Flamengo attack 1.437 / def 1.210 | league avg home 0.919 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Flamengo xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 8 November 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Chapecoense-sc 2 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 15% chance of winning, Flamengo a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.82) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
15%
6.76
20%
5.02
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
3.06
2.14
Flamengo xG
6.76
15%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
12%
8.51
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
2%
57.49
26%
3.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 2.14 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Chapecoense-sc have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 11D 16L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 16W 5D 7L from 28 games, 1.89 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 1.39 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0.38 PPG from 13 outings (0W 5D 8L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 6W 4D 3L from 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.86 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Flamengo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 11D 16L in their last 28 games (0.50 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 16W 5D 7L in their last 28 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.38 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Chapecoense-sc or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Flamengo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2026, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chapecoense-sc's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Flamengo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 62%, Flamengo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chapecoense-sc) and 62% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 31%; Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Chapecoense-sc's games and 62% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chapecoense-sc's recent games and 62% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 30, as Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.92 xG and Flamengo 2.14 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.82 / defence 1.58 against Flamengo attack 1.44 / defence 1.21, drawn from 30/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 15% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 65%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 43%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.