Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cruzeiro at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Chapecoense-sc welcome Cruzeiro to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cruzeiro — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cruzeiro's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Cruzeiro's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Chapecoense-sc's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chapecoense-sc register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cruzeiro in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chapecoense-sc, 1 for Cruzeiro and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Cruzeiro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chapecoense-sc trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cruzeiro trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chapecoense-sc 62% and Cruzeiro 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 54% | Cruzeiro 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.37 xG and Cruzeiro 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.918 / defence 1.533 | Cruzeiro attack 1.064 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Data: 24 Chapecoense-sc games / 63 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 26% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 48%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Cruzeiro 2.08. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 60% | Cruzeiro 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 26% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.37 / Cruzeiro 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.918 / def 1.533 | Cruzeiro attack 1.064 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Cruzeiro xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 26% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Cruzeiro?
Record (1 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 0 | Cruzeiro 1W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Cruzeiro in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Cruzeiro (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chapecoense-sc's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
26%
3.92
26%
3.84
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
3.29
1.92
Cruzeiro xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
15%
6.81
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
4%
26.65
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.92 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Chapecoense-sc have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 2W 8D 14L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cruzeiro's form line: 11W 6D 7L from 24 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cruzeiro are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0.73 PPG from 11 outings (1W 5D 5L).
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 5W 2D 4L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.46 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Cruzeiro in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 2W 8D 14L in their last 24 games (0.58 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Cruzeiro away?
Cruzeiro's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.73 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Cruzeiro?
From 1 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cruzeiro 2-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chapecoense-sc at 64%, Cruzeiro at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Chapecoense-sc and 64% for Cruzeiro. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Cruzeiro?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Chapecoense-sc's games and 73% of Cruzeiro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Chapecoense-sc's matches and 64% of Cruzeiro's.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.