Chapecoense-sc 3-3 Bahia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bahia (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chapecoense-sc face Bahia.

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Analysis

Bahia make the trip to Arena Condá to face Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Chapecoense-sc's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Arena Condá, Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bahia (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bahia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Bahia arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bahia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Bahia, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2026, ended 0–2 with Bahia winning.

It is worth noting that Bahia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Bahia — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chapecoense-sc 62% and Bahia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 52% | Bahia 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.02 xG and Bahia 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.794 / defence 1.665 | Bahia attack 0.944 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.117. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Chapecoense-sc games / 60 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 19% | Draw 29% | Bahia 52%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Bahia 1.92. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 70% | Bahia 60% BTTS from recent games.

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