Chapecoense-sc 1-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates America Mineiro at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Chapecoense-sc welcome America Mineiro to Arena Condá. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 August 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chapecoense-sc stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Condá, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 1D 6L this season (7 games, 0.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
America Mineiro — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, America Mineiro have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. America Mineiro's 1.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Chapecoense-sc's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Chapecoense-sc trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
America Mineiro trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 60% versus America Mineiro 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chapecoense-sc 53% | America Mineiro 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.93 xG and America Mineiro 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.657 / defence 1.473 | America Mineiro attack 0.834 / defence 1.569. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 1.079. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.569 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Chapecoense-sc games / 15 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 26% | Draw 28% | America Mineiro 46%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | America Mineiro 2.17. America Mineiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates America Mineiro as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 29% | America Mineiro 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Aug 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 26% | Draw 28% | America Mineiro 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.93 / America Mineiro 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.657 / def 1.473 | America Mineiro attack 0.834 / def 1.569 | league avg home 0.901 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.33
America Mineiro xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 26% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 0.66x the league average against America Mineiro's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
26%
3.82
28%
3.57
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.25
1.33
America Mineiro xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.33 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chapecoense-sc come into this having played 15 games, going 0W 4D 11L for 0.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 0.93 PPG from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
America Mineiro carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chapecoense-sc's home form reads 0W 1D 6L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.14 PPG return.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.80 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 4D 11L in their last 15 games (0.27 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or America Mineiro away?
America Mineiro's away record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.14 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro?
From 2 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, America Mineiro have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2021, when America Mineiro 3-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chapecoense-sc see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 29%, America Mineiro 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Chapecoense-sc) and 43% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 71% of games; America Mineiro in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Chapecoense-sc's recent matches and 57% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Chapecoense-sc's recent games and 43% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 16, as Chapecoense-sc and America Mineiro drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.93 xG and America Mineiro 1.33 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.66 / defence 1.47 against America Mineiro attack 0.83 / defence 1.57, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 26% | Draw 28% | America Mineiro 46%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 53%, America Mineiro 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
America Mineiro's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, America Mineiro arrived the stronger side — 0.93 PPG against 0.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. America Mineiro (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.