Ceara 3-2 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Ceara take on Gremio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Gremio travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Ceara. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.03 xG and Gremio 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gremio attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.003. Data: 0 Ceara games / 0 Gremio games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ceara 32% | Draw 39% | Gremio 29%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 3.12 | Draw 2.56 | Gremio 3.45. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 32% | Draw 39% | Gremio 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Ceara 1.03 / Gremio 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gremio attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Gremio xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Gremio kick off?
Ceara vs Gremio kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Gremio?
Ceara 3 - 2 Gremio.
Where is Ceara vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Gremio part of?
Ceara vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 32% chance of winning, Gremio a 29% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ceara and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Gremio in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ceara's attack at 0.85x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
39%
2.57
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.01
0.98
Gremio xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ceara and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Ceara and 0.98 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Pre-Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Gremio runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ceara's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ceara
1
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Gremio?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 2, Gremio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Gremio 0-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Gremio?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ceara edge out Gremio 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Gremio 3-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.03 xG and Gremio 0.98 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gremio outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gremio attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 32% | Draw 39% | Gremio 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ceara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.