Ceara 1-3 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 2 as Ceara welcome Botafogo to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Ceara have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.62 xG and Botafogo 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.961 / defence 0.952 | Botafogo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 0.873. Data: 39 Ceara games / 1 Botafogo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ceara 59% | Draw 25% | Botafogo 16%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Botafogo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ceara (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 59% | Draw 25% | Botafogo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Ceara 1.62 / Botafogo 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.961 / def 0.952 | Botafogo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.467 / away 0.873 • Poisson stance: Ceara (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Botafogo xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Botafogo kick off?
Ceara vs Botafogo kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Botafogo?
Ceara 1 - 3 Botafogo.
Where is Ceara vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Botafogo part of?
Ceara vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 59% chance of winning, Botafogo a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ceara and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Botafogo in?
Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Ceara home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ceara's attack at 0.96x the league average against Botafogo's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
59%
1.68
25%
4.07
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.33
0.71
Botafogo xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
3%
31.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ceara and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ceara and 0.71 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Botafogo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Botafogo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Ceara's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ceara
1
Draws
3
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Botafogo?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 0, Botafogo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Ceara 0-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ceara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Ceara 1-3 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.62 xG and Botafogo 0.71 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Botafogo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 59% | Draw 25% | Botafogo 16%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Botafogo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.