Ceara 1-0 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ceara and Avai meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 July 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Avai (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avai's away record: 1W 1D 6L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Ceara, 1.10 for Avai — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Ceara — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Avai — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 59% versus Avai 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 35% | Avai 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.62 xG and Avai 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.947 / defence 1.069 | Avai attack 0.688 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 0.933. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Ceara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Ceara games / 17 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 60% | Draw 25% | Avai 15%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Avai 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ceara (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 70% | Avai 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Jul 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 60% | Draw 25% | Avai 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Ceara 1.62 / Avai 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.947 / def 1.069 | Avai attack 0.688 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.260 / away 0.933 • Poisson stance: Ceara (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Avai xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Avai kick off?
Ceara vs Avai kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 20 July 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Avai?
Ceara 1 - 0 Avai.
Where is Ceara vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Avai part of?
Ceara vs Avai is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 60% chance of winning, Avai a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ceara and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Avai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Avai in?
Ceara (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Avai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ceara's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Avai's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Avai's attack (0.69x) against Ceara's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
60%
1.68
25%
4.02
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.30
0.69
Avai xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
3%
32.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ceara and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ceara and 0.69 for Avai, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Avai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ceara come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 9D 4L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Avai sit at 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Ceara against 1.24 for Avai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ceara's home form reads 1W 5D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Avai have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ceara are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Avai are on 1.12 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Avai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Avai in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 4W 9D 4L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Avai have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Avai away?
Ceara's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.00 PPG; Avai away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ceara
0
Draws
1
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, Avai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2022, when Avai 2-0 Ceara.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 75%, Avai 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ceara) and 62% (Avai).
On the defensive side: Avai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Avai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Ceara's games and 38% of Avai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ceara vs Avai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ceara's recent games and 62% of Avai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Avai tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Avai in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ceara edge out Avai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Avai 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.62 xG and Avai 0.69 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Avai attack 0.69 / defence 1.35, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 60% | Draw 25% | Avai 15%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 35%, Avai 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Avai's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.24 PPG, Avai 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Avai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.