Botafogo 3-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Botafogo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 32 as Botafogo welcome Vasco DA Gama to Estádio Nilton Santos. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 6 November 2024 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Estádio Nilton Santos, Botafogo have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vasco DA Gama away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Botafogo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Botafogo, 1 for Vasco DA Gama and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 49% versus Vasco DA Gama 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 44% | Vasco DA Gama 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.48 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.037 / defence 0.843 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.835 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.019. Data: 69 Botafogo games / 69 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 55% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 18%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Vasco DA Gama 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 40% | Vasco DA Gama 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Nov 2024, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 55% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Botafogo 1.48 / Vasco DA Gama 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.037 / def 0.843 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.835 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Vasco DA Gama xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 00:30 on Wednesday 6 November 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Botafogo 3 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 55% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (3 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama in?
Botafogo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.04x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.71
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.19
0.72
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
4%
24.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.72 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Botafogo's recent record stands at 37W 17D 15L from 69 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 29L across 69 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Botafogo by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 21W 7D 6L from 34 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 6W 10D 18L across 34 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.12 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 37W 17D 15L in their last 69 games (1.86 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 24W 16D 29L in their last 69 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Botafogo's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.06 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Botafogo have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2024, when Botafogo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Botafogo
1
Draws
1
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 5, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 47%, Vasco DA Gama 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Botafogo) and 35% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Botafogo's recent matches and 53% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Botafogo's recent games and 35% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Vasco DA Gama 3-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.48 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.72 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 55% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 18%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 44%, Vasco DA Gama 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.