Botafogo 3-3 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mirassol make the trip to Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 23:30 UTC.
Current Form
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mirassol have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Botafogo against 2.10 for Mirassol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 24% versus Mirassol 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 29% | Mirassol 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.13 xG and Mirassol 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.077 / defence 0.962 | Mirassol attack 0.991 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.094. Mirassol's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Botafogo games / 21 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 38% | Draw 29% | Mirassol 33%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Mirassol 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 40% | Mirassol 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Sep 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 38% | Draw 29% | Mirassol 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Botafogo 1.13 / Mirassol 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.077 / def 0.962 | Mirassol attack 0.991 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Mirassol xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Mirassol kick off?
Botafogo vs Mirassol kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Botafogo 3 - 3 Mirassol.
Where is Botafogo vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Mirassol part of?
Botafogo vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 38% chance of winning, Mirassol a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Botafogo and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Mirassol in?
Botafogo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Mirassol (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.08x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.99x) against Botafogo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
38%
2.66
29%
3.41
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.17
1.04
Mirassol xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.04 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Botafogo come into this having played 21 games, going 10W 5D 6L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (10W 8D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Botafogo against 1.81 for Mirassol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Botafogo's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.60 points per game from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.71 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Botafogo have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games; Mirassol in 67%.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 10W 5D 6L in their last 21 games (1.67 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 10W 8D 3L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Mirassol away?
Botafogo's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.80 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Mirassol in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mirassol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Botafogo
2
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 1, Mirassol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2026, when Botafogo 3-2 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Mirassol?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 40%, Mirassol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Botafogo and 20% for Mirassol.
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mirassol in 40%; Botafogo have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Botafogo's recent matches and 50% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Botafogo's recent games and 20% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Mirassol tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo and Mirassol share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 12, as Botafogo and Mirassol drew 3-3 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.13 xG and Mirassol 1.04 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mirassol outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Mirassol attack 0.99 / defence 0.78, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 38% | Draw 29% | Mirassol 33%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 29%, Mirassol 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Mirassol's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.67 PPG, Mirassol 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.