Bahia 1-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santos make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 September 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bahia's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Arena Fonte Nova this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Santos (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Bahia's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Santos's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bahia, 1 for Santos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Santos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 52% versus Santos 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 52% | Santos 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.99 xG and Santos 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.087 / defence 1.080 | Santos attack 0.594 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 0.952. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Bahia games / 61 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 69% | Draw 21% | Santos 9%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.45 | Draw 4.76 | Santos 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 70% | Santos 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Sep 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 69% | Draw 21% | Santos 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 40% | xG Bahia 1.99 / Santos 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.087 / def 1.080 | Santos attack 0.594 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.353 / away 0.952 • Poisson stance: Bahia (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Santos xG
40%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Santos kick off?
Bahia vs Santos kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 19 September 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Santos?
Bahia 1 - 2 Santos.
Where is Bahia vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Santos part of?
Bahia vs Santos is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 69% chance of winning, Santos a 9% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bahia and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Santos?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 1 | Santos 1W.
What form are Bahia and Santos in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Santos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.09) and Santos's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.59x) against Bahia's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
69%
1.45
21%
4.67
9%
10.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.60
0.61
Santos xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
10.54
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
14%
7.31
Win to Nil
38%
2.67
1%
77.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bahia and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Bahia and 0.61 for Santos, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 6W 7D 10L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santos's form line: 5W 6D 12L from 23 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Bahia against 0.91 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
On the road, Santos have gone 1W 1D 9L from 11 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 0.91 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Santos in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Santos have gone 5W 6D 12L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Santos away?
Bahia's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.45 PPG; Santos away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 30 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Bahia
3
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Santos?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Santos have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bahia 2-2 Santos.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 73%, Santos 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bahia) and 36% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Santos in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Bahia's recent matches and 18% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bahia's recent games and 36% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Santos tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Santos in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Bahia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Bahia 1-2 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.99 xG and Santos 0.61 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bahia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Santos outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.09 / defence 1.08 against Santos attack 0.59 / defence 1.35, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 69% | Draw 21% | Santos 9%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Santos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 52%, Santos 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Santos's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.09 PPG, Santos 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.