Bahia 3-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Bahia welcome Coritiba to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bahia haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Coritiba's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Bahia) versus 1.10 (Coritiba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 40% versus Coritiba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 45% | Coritiba 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.43 xG and Coritiba 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.835 / defence 1.195 | Coritiba attack 0.802 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.134. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Bahia games / 41 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 45% | Draw 27% | Coritiba 29%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Coritiba 3.45. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 50% | Coritiba 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 45% | Draw 27% | Coritiba 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Bahia 1.43 / Coritiba 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.835 / def 1.195 | Coritiba attack 0.802 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Bahia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Coritiba xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Coritiba kick off?
Bahia vs Coritiba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Coritiba?
Bahia 3 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Bahia vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Coritiba part of?
Bahia vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 45% chance of winning, Coritiba a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bahia and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Coritiba in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bahia's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Coritiba's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.73
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.51
1.09
Coritiba xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
14.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bahia and 1.09 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bahia come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 10D 17L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. Bahia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Coritiba sit at 1.11 PPG from 38 outings (12W 6D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.13 PPG, Coritiba on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bahia's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Coritiba have taken 0.26 points per game from 19 outings (1W 2D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.03 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 12W 6D 20L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Coritiba away?
Bahia's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.53 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.26 PPG.
Have Bahia or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Coritiba in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Coritiba runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Bahia
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Coritiba?
From 3 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Coritiba 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Coritiba?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Coritiba 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bahia) and 58% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bahia have failed to score in 32% of games; Coritiba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 53% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bahia's recent games and 58% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Coritiba tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Coritiba 3-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.43 xG and Coritiba 1.09 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.83 / defence 1.20 against Coritiba attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 45% | Draw 27% | Coritiba 29%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 45%, Coritiba 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Coritiba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.13 PPG, Coritiba 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.