Atletico Paranaense vs Remo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Paranaense vs Remo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Remo make the trip to Arena da Baixada to face Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Paranaense have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense at Arena da Baixada this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena da Baixada.
Remo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Remo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Remo away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Atletico Paranaense's favour (2.20 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Atletico Paranaense 1W, Remo 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Remo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 52% versus Remo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 44% | Remo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 2.02 xG and Remo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.092 / defence 1.019 | Remo attack 0.838 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Remo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Atletico Paranaense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Atletico Paranaense games / 25 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 59% | Draw 25% | Remo 16%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Remo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Paranaense (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Remo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 59% | Draw 25% | Remo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Atletico Paranaense 2.02 / Remo 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.092 / def 1.019 | Remo attack 0.838 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Remo xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Remo kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Remo is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Arena da Baixada.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Remo part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Remo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 59% chance of winning, Remo a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Remo?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 0 | Remo 0W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Remo in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Remo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (1.09) and Remo's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Remo's attack (0.84x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.02
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
3.02
1.00
Remo xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
2%
46.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.00 for Remo, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Paranaense come into this having played 25 games, going 13W 6D 6L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Remo sit at 0.92 PPG from 25 outings (5W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Remo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Remo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Atletico Paranaense's home form reads 8W 4D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Remo have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Remo are on 1.20 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Remo in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Remo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Remo in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 6D 6L in their last 25 games (1.80 PPG), while Remo have gone 5W 8D 12L in their last 25 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Remo away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 2.15 PPG; Remo away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Remo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Remo in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Atletico Paranaense
0
Draws
0
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Remo?
From 1 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Remo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Remo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Remo?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Remo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 54%, Remo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Atletico Paranaense) and 62% (Remo).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Remo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Remo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 54% of Remo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Remo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 62% of Remo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Remo tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Remo in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.