Atletico Paranaense 4-2 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 38%, yet in-form Gremio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense and Gremio meet at Arena da Baixada in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Current Form
Atletico Paranaense's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense at Arena da Baixada this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Arena da Baixada than their overall form suggests.
Gremio have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Gremio arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 0 for Gremio and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2021, ended 1–0 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 58% versus Gremio 26%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 63% | Gremio 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.08 xG and Gremio 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.077 / defence 1.212 | Gremio attack 0.696 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 0.879 / away 1.021. Data: 20 Atletico Paranaense games / 19 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 38% | Draw 35% | Gremio 27%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Gremio 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 70% | Gremio 22%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 38% | Draw 35% | Gremio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.08 / Gremio 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.077 / def 1.212 | Gremio attack 0.696 / def 1.142 | league avg home 0.879 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Gremio xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Atletico Paranaense 4 - 2 Gremio.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 38% chance of winning, Gremio a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 0 | Gremio 0W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Gremio in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Gremio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 1.08x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.70x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
38%
2.63
35%
2.82
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
1.94
0.86
Gremio xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.86 for Gremio, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 7W 3D 9L from 19 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.16 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Atletico Paranaense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gremio's away record stands at 3W 0D 6L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.79 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio in 26%.
Defensively: Gremio in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Gremio in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 7W 3D 9L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Gremio have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Gremio away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.67 PPG; Gremio away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Gremio in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Gremio?
From 7 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Gremio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 78%, Gremio 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Atletico Paranaense) and 22% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Gremio in 33%; Gremio in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 78% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 22% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 78% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 22% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Gremio tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gremio in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Gremio 4-2 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.08 xG and Gremio 0.86 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gremio outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.08 / defence 1.21 against Gremio attack 0.70 / defence 1.14, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 38% | Draw 35% | Gremio 27%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 63%, Gremio 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.26 PPG, Gremio 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.