Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Gremio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense and Gremio meet at Ligga Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atletico Paranaense's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense at Ligga Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ligga Arena. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Ligga Arena than their overall form suggests.
Gremio have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gremio have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 2 for Gremio and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 54% versus Gremio 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 38% | Gremio 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.62 xG and Gremio 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.053 / defence 1.092 | Gremio attack 0.852 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.046. Data: 56 Atletico Paranaense games / 56 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 52% | Draw 25% | Gremio 23%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Gremio 4.35. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Gremio 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 52% | Draw 25% | Gremio 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.62 / Gremio 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.053 / def 1.092 | Gremio attack 0.852 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Gremio xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Gremio.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 52% chance of winning, Gremio a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Gremio?
Record (5 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 3W | Draws 0 | Gremio 2W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Gremio in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Gremio (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 1.05x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.85x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.03
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.59
0.97
Gremio xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
4%
22.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.97 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 22W 18D 16L from 56 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 22L across 56 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.54 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 14W 10D 3L from 27 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Atletico Paranaense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gremio's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.39 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Gremio in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 18D 16L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Gremio have gone 26W 8D 22L in their last 56 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Gremio away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.93 PPG; Gremio away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Gremio?
From 7 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Gremio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 63%, Gremio 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Atletico Paranaense) and 67% (Gremio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gremio in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 63% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Atletico Paranaense's matches and 67% of Gremio's.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Gremio tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Gremio in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atletico Paranaense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Atletico Paranaense 0-2 at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.62 xG and Gremio 0.97 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Gremio outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Gremio attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 52% | Draw 25% | Gremio 23%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Gremio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 38%, Gremio 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.50 PPG, Gremio 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.