Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fortaleza EC (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atletico Paranaense face Fortaleza EC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC meet at Ligga Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Paranaense have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Paranaense have posted 3W 2D 5L at Ligga Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortaleza EC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fortaleza EC arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atletico Paranaense have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fortaleza EC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atletico Paranaense lead 1W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 54% versus Fortaleza EC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 39% | Fortaleza EC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.21 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.849 / defence 1.288 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.959 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.041. Data: 61 Atletico Paranaense games / 63 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 35% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 38%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Fortaleza EC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 60% | Fortaleza EC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 35% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.21 / Fortaleza EC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.849 / def 1.288 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.959 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fortaleza EC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 35% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC?
Record (7 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 3 | Fortaleza EC 3W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (0.85) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.96x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 61/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
35%
2.89
27%
3.70
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.49
1.29
Fortaleza EC xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.29 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 22W 19D 20L from 61 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 19L across 61 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.61 for Fortaleza EC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 14W 10D 6L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.18 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 19D 20L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 28W 14D 19L in their last 61 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.73 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 3-0 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Atletico Paranaense
4
Draws
3
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Fortaleza EC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 60%, Fortaleza EC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Atletico Paranaense) and 43% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Fortaleza EC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 53% of Fortaleza EC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 43% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.21 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.85 / defence 1.29 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 35% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 38%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 39%, Fortaleza EC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.39 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.