Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 42%, yet in-form Flamengo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense host Flamengo at Ligga Arena in Serie A (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 16 June 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Atletico Paranaense's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Flamengo have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 2 for Flamengo and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2023, ended Atletico Paranaense 3–0 Flamengo — a Atletico Paranaense win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 51% versus Flamengo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 41% | Flamengo 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Atletico Paranaense surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Flamengo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.40 xG and Flamengo 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.336 / defence 0.739 | Flamengo attack 1.370 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.151. Atletico Paranaense carry an above-average attack rating of 1.336 — their 1.40 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.370, which lifts their away xG to 1.17. Atletico Paranaense have a tight defence (rating 0.739), which is pulling Flamengo's projected output down. Data: built from Atletico Paranaense's last 46 games and Flamengo's last 46.
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 42% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 31%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.40 | Draw 3.62 | Flamengo 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atletico Paranaense 70% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 9 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 June 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 42% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.40 / Flamengo 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.336 / def 0.739 | Flamengo attack 1.370 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Flamengo xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 9) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 42% chance of winning, Flamengo a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (1.34) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atletico Paranaense's last 46 games and Flamengo's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.62
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.57
1.17
Flamengo xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.17 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 30W 24D 22L from 76 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 37W 17D 22L across 76 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Paranaense on 1.50 PPG, Flamengo on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 21W 14D 3L from their last 38 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Atletico Paranaense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Flamengo's away record stands at 16W 9D 13L across their last 38 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.53 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 30W 24D 22L in their last 76 games (1.50 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 37W 17D 22L in their last 76 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Flamengo away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 2.03 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Flamengo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2022, when Flamengo won Flamengo 5-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
3
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Flamengo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 58%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Atletico Paranaense) and 55% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Flamengo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 60% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 55% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 68% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo finished level at 1-1 at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.40 xG and Flamengo 1.17 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.34 / defence 0.74 against Flamengo attack 1.37 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 42% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 31%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 41%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.50 PPG, Flamengo 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.