Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc meet at Arena da Baixada in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 28 June 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.34 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.056 / defence 1.058 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.840 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.018. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Atletico Paranaense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Atletico Paranaense games / 6 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 47% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 25%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Chapecoense-sc 4.00. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Monday 28 Jun 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 47% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.34 / Chapecoense-sc 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.056 / def 1.058 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.840 / def 1.318 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Chapecoense-sc xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 28 June 2021 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 47% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 1.06x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.84x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.59
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.25
0.91
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.91 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 7, as Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.34 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 47% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 25%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.