Atletico-MG 3-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico-MG at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 37 as Atletico-MG welcome Cuiaba to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto. Kick-off is set for Thursday 10 November 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico-MG have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Atletico-MG's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cuiaba — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atletico-MG at 1.20 PPG versus Cuiaba's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Atletico-MG, 0 for Cuiaba and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atletico-MG in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico-MG 49% versus Cuiaba 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico-MG 43% | Cuiaba 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 1.00 xG and Cuiaba 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 0.779 / defence 0.968 | Cuiaba attack 0.890 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.003. Atletico-MG's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Atletico-MG games / 74 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 30%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Cuiaba 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico-MG are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico-MG 30% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Atletico-MG 1.00 / Cuiaba 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 0.779 / def 0.968 | Cuiaba attack 0.890 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cuiaba xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Atletico-MG 3 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba part of?
Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 38% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Atletico-MG and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Cuiaba?
Record (3 meetings): Atletico-MG 2W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Atletico-MG and Cuiaba in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atletico-MG's attack at 0.78x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Atletico-MG's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.12
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
1.87
0.86
Cuiaba xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 0.86 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico-MG come into this having played 74 games, going 39W 19D 16L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.15 PPG from 74 outings (19W 28D 27L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Atletico-MG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Atletico-MG's home form reads 24W 6D 7L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 0.95 points per game from 37 outings (7W 14D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico-MG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico-MG are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.85 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico-MG and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Atletico-MG have gone 39W 19D 16L in their last 74 games (1.84 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 19W 28D 27L in their last 74 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico-MG at home or Cuiaba away?
Atletico-MG's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico-MG at home: 2.11 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Atletico-MG or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Atletico-MG won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico-MG's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Atletico-MG
2
Draws
0
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Atletico-MG have won 6, Cuiaba have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Atletico-MG and Cuiaba?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico-MG 49%, Cuiaba 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Atletico-MG) and 32% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cuiaba in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico-MG play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Atletico-MG's recent matches and 43% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Atletico-MG's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico-MG and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Atletico-MG have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atletico-MG run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Cuiaba 3-0 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.00 xG and Cuiaba 0.86 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Atletico-MG beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cuiaba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Cuiaba attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 30%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 43%, Cuiaba 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico-MG's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.