Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense host Cuiaba at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Goianiense — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 4W 1D 5L at Estádio Antônio Accioly — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Atletico Goianiense are significantly better at Estádio Antônio Accioly than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atletico Goianiense at 0.80 PPG versus Cuiaba's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Cuiaba 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Goianiense in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 45% versus Cuiaba 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Goianiense 32% | Cuiaba 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 1.04 xG and Cuiaba 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.832 / defence 1.076 | Cuiaba attack 0.745 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 0.920. Data: 60 Atletico Goianiense games / 60 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 42% | Draw 33% | Cuiaba 25%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Cuiaba 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Goianiense are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Goianiense 50% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 42% | Draw 33% | Cuiaba 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Atletico Goianiense 1.04 / Cuiaba 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.832 / def 1.076 | Cuiaba attack 0.745 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.344 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cuiaba xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 42% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba?
Record (3 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 0W | Draws 2 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Goianiense's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
42%
2.38
33%
3.07
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
1.78
0.74
Cuiaba xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.74 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Goianiense come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 20D 22L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.17 PPG from 60 outings (16W 22D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Goianiense on 1.23 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atletico Goianiense's home form reads 10W 12D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (6W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Goianiense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.82 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 18W 20D 22L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 16W 22D 22L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Cuiaba away?
Atletico Goianiense's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.40 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Atletico Goianiense's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
5
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Cuiaba have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 47%, Cuiaba 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Atletico Goianiense and 33% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 33%; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 37% of games; Cuiaba in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 40% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 33% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 1.04 xG and Cuiaba 0.74 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Cuiaba attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 42% | Draw 33% | Cuiaba 25%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 32%, Cuiaba 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Goianiense 1.23 PPG, Cuiaba 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.