Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Atletico Goianiense take on Corinthians.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Corinthians travel to Estádio Antônio Accioly to take on Atletico Goianiense. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 22:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Goianiense stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 5D 2L this season (9 games, 1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Corinthians's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Atletico Goianiense's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atletico Goianiense, 0 for Corinthians and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 1–0 with Atletico Goianiense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Goianiense in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Corinthians in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 44% versus Corinthians 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Goianiense 28% | Corinthians 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.49 xG and Corinthians 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.714 / defence 1.000 | Corinthians attack 0.729 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 0.868 / away 1.082. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Corinthians's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Atletico Goianiense games / 19 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 19% | Draw 42% | Corinthians 38%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 5.26 | Draw 2.38 | Corinthians 2.63. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 14% | BTTS probability 22% | Total xG 1.28. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 86% probability — total xG of 1.28 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 78% — Atletico Goianiense's lower xG of 0.49 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 22%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 19% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.28 combined xG gives a 14% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 22% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Goianiense 33% | Corinthians 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 19% | Draw 42% | Corinthians 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 14% | BTTS 22% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.49 / Corinthians 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.714 / def 1.000 | Corinthians attack 0.729 / def 0.788 | league avg home 0.868 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.49
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Corinthians xG
22%
BTTS
38%
Over 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
4%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 19% chance of winning, Corinthians a 38% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 22% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 14%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 1W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 0W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atletico Goianiense's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.49. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 29.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 62% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
19%
5.13
42%
2.36
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
27.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
22.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.49
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
1.28
0.79
Corinthians xG
5.13
19%
Home win
2.36
42%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
37%
Over 1.5
2.70
63%
Under 1.5
1.59
14%
Over 2.5
7.14
86%
Under 2.5
1.16
4%
Over 3.5
25.00
96%
Under 3.5
1.04
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
22%
BTTS Yes
4.46
78%
BTTS No
1.29
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
61%
1.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27.9 | 22.0 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 29.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 0.49 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.79 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico Goianiense's recent record stands at 6W 7D 5L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 4L across 18 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Goianiense on 1.39 PPG, Corinthians on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atletico Goianiense have managed 2W 5D 2L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 4W 4D 1L across 9 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.00 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Corinthians in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 7W 7D 4L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Corinthians away?
Corinthians's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.22 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Corinthians in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Corinthians won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Goianiense's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Atletico Goianiense
2
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, Corinthians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2024, when Corinthians 3-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Atletico Goianiense 33% BTTS, Corinthians 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Atletico Goianiense and 11% for Corinthians.
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Corinthians in 56%; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 44% of games; Corinthians in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 33% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 11% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense and Corinthians finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.49 xG and Corinthians 0.79 xG, a combined 1.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.71 / defence 1.00 against Corinthians attack 0.73 / defence 0.79, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 19% | Draw 42% | Corinthians 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 14%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 38% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 22% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 28%, Corinthians 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Corinthians's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Goianiense 1.39 PPG, Corinthians 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.