America Mineiro 1-2 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
America Mineiro and Cuiaba meet at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
America Mineiro have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
America Mineiro's home record at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for America Mineiro, 1.10 for Cuiaba — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: America Mineiro 2W, Cuiaba 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Cuiaba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
America Mineiro half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 43% versus Cuiaba 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 32% | Cuiaba 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.18 xG and Cuiaba 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.807 / defence 1.166 | Cuiaba attack 0.954 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.120. Data: 41 America Mineiro games / 41 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 35% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 38%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Cuiaba 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: America Mineiro 60% | Cuiaba 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 35% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG America Mineiro 1.18 / Cuiaba 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.807 / def 1.166 | Cuiaba attack 0.954 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Cuiaba xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Cuiaba kick off?
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
America Mineiro 1 - 2 Cuiaba.
Where is America Mineiro vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Cuiaba part of?
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 35% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both America Mineiro and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Cuiaba?
Record (4 meetings): America Mineiro 2W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are America Mineiro and Cuiaba in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 0.81x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.95x) against America Mineiro's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
35%
2.90
28%
3.59
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.43
1.25
Cuiaba xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for America Mineiro and 1.25 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 28W 22D 26L from 76 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 20W 28D 28L across 76 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for America Mineiro against 1.16 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 18W 10D 10L from 38 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 7W 14D 17L across 38 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
America Mineiro are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.86 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 28W 22D 26L in their last 76 games (1.39 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 20W 28D 28L in their last 76 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Cuiaba away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.68 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.92 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, America Mineiro have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
2
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Cuiaba have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Cuiaba 2-2 America Mineiro.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 40%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for America Mineiro and 34% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 29% of games; Cuiaba in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of America Mineiro's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Cuiaba tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cuiaba edge out America Mineiro 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat America Mineiro 1-2 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.18 xG and Cuiaba 1.25 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against Cuiaba attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 35% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 38%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 32%, Cuiaba 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.39 PPG, Cuiaba 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. America Mineiro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.