Zulte Waregem 1-4 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 36%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Zulte Waregem welcome Union St. Gilloise to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Elindus Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Zulte Waregem's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Zulte Waregem.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 0–4 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 63% versus Union St. Gilloise 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 61% | Union St. Gilloise 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.20 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.091 / defence 0.982 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.021 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.080. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Zulte Waregem games / 42 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 31%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Union St. Gilloise 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 50% | Union St. Gilloise 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.20 / Union St. Gilloise 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.091 / def 0.982 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.021 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Union St. Gilloise xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 4 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 36% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (4 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 4W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (1.09) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
36%
2.74
33%
3.05
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.28
1.08
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.08 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 23W 9D 9L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 30W 7D 4L from 41 games, 2.37 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 2.20 PPG from 20 outings (14W 2D 4L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 13W 5D 2L from 20 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.05 scored and 0.63 conceded. Zulte Waregem's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 23W 9D 9L in their last 41 games (1.90 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 30W 7D 4L in their last 41 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 2.20 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise?
From 7 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 60%, Union St. Gilloise 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Zulte Waregem) and 50% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zulte Waregem's games and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Zulte Waregem 1-4 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.20 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.08 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.02 / defence 0.80, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 31%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 61%, Union St. Gilloise 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.