Zulte Waregem 2-5 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OH Leuven at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Elindus Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
OH Leuven have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, OH Leuven are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Zulte Waregem, 0 for OH Leuven and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
OH Leuven half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 57% and OH Leuven 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 59% | OH Leuven 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.22 xG and OH Leuven 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.863 / defence 1.364 | OH Leuven attack 1.090 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.409. Data: 44 Zulte Waregem games / 44 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 22% | Draw 21% | OH Leuven 57%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | OH Leuven 1.75. The model has a clear lean to OH Leuven (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 40% | OH Leuven 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 22% | Draw 21% | OH Leuven 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.22 / OH Leuven 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.863 / def 1.364 | OH Leuven attack 1.090 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
2.10
OH Leuven xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 5 OH Leuven.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven part of?
Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 22% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 2 | OH Leuven 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against OH Leuven's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (1.09x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
22%
4.61
21%
4.80
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.32
2.10
OH Leuven xG
4.61
22%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
12%
8.13
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
3%
37.44
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 2.10 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 44 games, going 9W 10D 25L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OH Leuven sit at 1.32 PPG from 44 outings (15W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 6W 4D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, OH Leuven have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (5W 9D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.43 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 10D 25L in their last 44 games (0.84 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or OH Leuven away?
OH Leuven's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.00 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 2-5 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
3
Draws
2
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, OH Leuven have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when OH Leuven 1-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 59%, OH Leuven 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Zulte Waregem and 64% for OH Leuven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Zulte Waregem's games and 68% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 64% of OH Leuven's.
Do Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OH Leuven run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Zulte Waregem 2-5 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.22 xG and OH Leuven 2.10 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. OH Leuven outscored their 2.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.86 / defence 1.36 against OH Leuven attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 22% | Draw 21% | OH Leuven 57%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, OH Leuven 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OH Leuven arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.