Zulte Waregem 1-2 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Zulte Waregem welcome Gent to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem at Elindus Arena this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 home games — 0.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gent stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Gent have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Zulte Waregem) versus 1.40 (Gent). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Gent in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 86% and Gent 43% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 79% | Gent 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.06 xG and Gent 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.034 / defence 1.780 | Gent attack 0.639 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.441. Data: 14 Zulte Waregem games / 14 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 24% | Draw 25% | Gent 51%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Gent 1.96. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 86% | Gent 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 24% | Draw 25% | Gent 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.06 / Gent 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.034 / def 1.780 | Gent attack 0.639 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Gent (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Gent xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Gent kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Gent?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 2 Gent.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Gent part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Gent is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 24% chance of winning, Gent a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Gent?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Gent in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Gent (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 1.03x the league average against Gent's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
24%
4.09
25%
4.03
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.70
1.64
Gent xG
4.09
24%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
5%
21.08
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.64 for Gent, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 6L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 1.00 PPG, Gent on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 1W 2D 4L from 7 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gent's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.50 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Gent in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Gent have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Gent away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.71 PPG; Gent away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Mar 2023, when Gent won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Gent specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Gent?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Gent have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Gent 2-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gent see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 86%, Gent 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zulte Waregem and 29% for Gent. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gent in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Gent?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Zulte Waregem's games and 29% of Gent's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 29% of Gent's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Gent tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gent in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gent edge out Zulte Waregem 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Zulte Waregem 1-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.06 xG and Gent 1.64 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.03 / defence 1.78 against Gent attack 0.64 / defence 0.84, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 24% | Draw 25% | Gent 51%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 79%, Gent 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Gent's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.00 PPG, Gent 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gent (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.