Union St. Gilloise 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Stade Joseph Marien to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Marien: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien.
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Union St. Gilloise's favour (2.40 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 3–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 46% versus St. Truiden 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | St. Truiden 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.40 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.196 / defence 0.608 | St. Truiden attack 1.149 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.608 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Union St. Gilloise games / 60 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 25%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | St. Truiden 4.00. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 40% | St. Truiden 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 31 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.40 / St. Truiden 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.196 / def 0.608 | St. Truiden attack 1.149 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.92
St. Truiden xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is a Championship Group - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 48% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Record (7 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 6W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.15x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.67
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.32
0.92
St. Truiden xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.92 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 41W 19D 6L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 28W 14D 24L from 66 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.52 PPG from 33 outings (26W 5D 2L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 11W 6D 16L from 33 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 65%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 41W 19D 6L in their last 66 games (2.15 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 28W 14D 24L in their last 66 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or St. Truiden away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.52 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 39%, St. Truiden 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union St. Gilloise) and 61% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 67% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 61% of St. Truiden's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out St. Truiden 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 1-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Championship Group - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.40 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.20 / defence 0.61 against St. Truiden attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 25%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 44%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
St. Truiden's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.