Union St. Gilloise 4-2 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Seraing United travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Seraing United stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seraing United's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Seraing United in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 50% versus Seraing United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union St. Gilloise 70% | Seraing United 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.78 xG and Seraing United 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.084 / defence 0.953 | Seraing United attack 0.621 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.467. Seraing United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Union St. Gilloise games / 10 Seraing United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | Seraing United 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Seraing United 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Seraing United 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | Seraing United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.78 / Seraing United 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.084 / def 0.953 | Seraing United attack 0.621 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Seraing United xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Union St. Gilloise 4 - 2 Seraing United.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 59% chance of winning, Seraing United a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Seraing United (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.08x the league average against Seraing United's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Seraing United's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.34
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.65
0.87
Seraing United xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
3%
32.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.87 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 6W 1D 3L from 10 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seraing United, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 6L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Seraing United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seraing United's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Seraing United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Seraing United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Seraing United away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.80 PPG; Seraing United away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Seraing United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Seraing United in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Seraing United specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United?
From 4 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Seraing United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Seraing United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 40%, Seraing United 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Union St. Gilloise and 80% for Seraing United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Seraing United in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Seraing United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 40% of Seraing United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 80% of Seraing United's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Seraing United in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Seraing United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Seraing United 4-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.78 xG and Seraing United 0.87 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Seraing United outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Seraing United attack 0.62 / defence 1.37, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | Seraing United 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 70%, Seraing United 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Seraing United's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Seraing United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.